U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 131621 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1021 am CST Tue Nov 13 2018 

Valid 131630z - 141200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

severe thunderstorms are not expected today. 

Virtually no changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible today 
and tonight over parts of southern Georgia and much of Florida. Forecast 
soundings show poor lapse rates and minimal convergence/shear, 
suggesting that lightning activity will be limited over land, and 
the severe threat is low. 

.Hart/Bentley.. 11/13/2018 


Mesoscale Discussion

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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 131306 

Mesoscale discussion 1644 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0706 am CST Tue Nov 13 2018 

Areas affected...northeastern Vermont into western Maine 

Concerning...heavy snow 

Valid 131306z - 131700z 

Summary...snowfall rates will increase this morning to between 1-2 
inches per hour across portions of northeastern Vermont into western 

Discussion...precipitation is ongoing across much of the northeast 
within a broad warm-air advection regime to the north of a 
developing mid-Atlantic cyclone and to the east of a midlevel 
trough. Within this warm-air advection regime, strong frontogenetic 
forcing in the lower troposphere is focused across southern New 
England. This will lift northward later this morning as the surface 
low moves northeast along the coast. Temperatures across northern 
Vermont and into Maine should remain cold enough to support snow as 
the predominant precipitation type through the day. Thus, as the 
higher precipitation rates associated with the lower-tropospheric 
frontogenetic forcing arrive, the result will be several hours of 
1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates, with higher rates possible on 
small space/time scales. Snowfall rates should begin to decrease 
this afternoon as the low begins to move away from the area. 

.Marsh.. 11/13/2018 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 44167137 44307249 44917281 45787059 46936970 46196842 
44836992 44167137